Analysis by Roberto Jbili                                                                    

     Park Capital Management                                                                

     Italy, Milano 29-04-2010

Forex Analysis By Roberto Jbili For www.globalcurrencymarkets.com 

Milano, Italy 29-04-2010 

0039 3450924300

jbili@lycos.com, More Analysis on www.forexinvestor.net

Global politics update from point of economic vie & The upcoming brown exit from UK political life

When innovations does not exist, France use the usual negative tools to pull cash of nations and people and which is better descirbed as the negative GOV control on nations cash in which the GOV try to control investors cash abd pull it using any negative plane or project

The main shame is using names and pumping it like Borwn, Merkel, Bloomberg, and here I focus on Gordon Brown which will be the the 2 Blair. 

Brown was used by France to give France confidence when UK will share France Prjoects to control Global banking and make it controled by state, the result is UK is that today there is no bank to remain and UK will not be able to manage the actual banks which will hold and for this reason Brown is out.

UK cant manage private banking coz UK style in building reveune for GOV spending is different, Here I note also that the Gov cant be a trader and his mission is only to collect taxes.

To note that this confidence allow names like the EX-KGB Dealer Putin to kill the president of Poland using positive political climate between USA & Russia on nuclear deal. France view is that Russia in a part from France view in this agreement is to kill the Polish president which support the ABM plane.

Russia is today an nuclear army trader supported bu USA noted in Berlusconi Italy which France make him to feel as the person which build all this projects which resulted an chaos in Global political system noted in the Below currency & Gold analysis:

The Charts

AUD/JPY TARGET IS 0.99

FED SAY: BULL MARKET IN STOCKS MEAN BULLS IN OIL AUD-JPY IS THE MAIN INDICATOR TODAY FOR STOCKS BASED ON CREDIT AND CARRY TRADE, TARGET IS 0.99 WITH OIL TO 120 TOP LEVELS AT SAME TIME. THE PAIR IN ACTUAL PATTERN NOTE MARKED IN BLUE CONFIRM THAT STOCK MARKETS WILL CORRECT WHEN OIL REACH

100 USD, BEAR MARKET RALLY WILL FINISH WITH OIL RISE TO 120

OIL INDICATE THAT DOW WILL RALLY TO 12800 AND EVEN 13000 LEVELS.

AUD/USD TARGET IS 1 VS 1

Demand for Gold coming from USD selling is more than demand for AUD or other currencies, this is noted in underperformance of Euro to Gold, The point is weak Global fundmanetals from point of economic view combined with political risks, Gold outperform paper of governaments or currencies

EURO/USD TARGET IS 1.3860 then a Drop to 1.2860

USD/JPY TARGET IS 100

NZD/USD TARGET IS 0.84

Commodities made AUD attractive for carry trade more than NZD

also we are in bear market rally of commodities. the combination between Gold demand

on AUD and Carry trade or credit on AUD made AUD pull many cash from NZD.

GOLD TARGET IS 1480 USD

On Gold analysis I note the following points:

1-Politcal tensions from UK elections will have negative impact in UK colonials in Iran & Iraq and even new controled parts by politics like Syria.

2-Story carry trade offered to Australia will produce cash in Australian Gold & Metals investments and this will have positive impact on Gold since confidence will appear in Gold investments on Global basis

3-upcoming weak USD performance VS Euro after speculation on Gov deals by Mr. Soros and Hedge Funds will be over, the traders overpriced the Greece economic problem in trading

4-AUD is single carry provider at the moment.

5-Gold confirm my analysis that Brown will lose the election like Blair indicated by Iraq surprise election.

6-split in Global political leaders like Soros, UK leaders, Israel, USA on future developments of Iran nuclear file will be noted later on Gold, Soros remain on delete of Iran nuke file by Army and to resize such us negative trends in global military trading offered by Russia like also the last one to Italy.

7-The basis of gold rise is fundamental and will be noted in Oil, Commodities, Currency Markets on short, medium and long term.

OIL TARGET IS 100 Then 128 USD

-Oil target is 100 then 128 USD

Stock market will correct at 100 USD then 128 USD per Oil

-Oil is bull and demand from Economy is strong

-Economy or Stock Markets or Dow at 12800 mean oil at 128 US

-Oil confirm that CAD will

rally to 0.90 vs USD

DOW JONES TARGET IS 12800 With Oil to 128 USD

NASDAQ TARGET IS 2700

The oil rally to 120 USD will limit Nasdaq or tech stocks performace over Dow industrials

Nasdaq today indicate that a lot of carry trade is invested in this index companies and made

the index ta speculative levels for some and for others it an long term investments for the

upcoming tech cycle to finance this companies projects.

DAX TARGET IS 7300

DAX INDICATE THAT EURO INVESTORS HAS MORE CONFIDENCE IN USA STOCK MARKETS THAN EUROPE, DOING TO SOROS AND OBAMA EFFORTS IN HELPING USA ECONOMY VIA DEBTS, DOW WILL OUTPERFORM DAX, ALSO DOING TO POLITICAL PROBLEMS IN EUROPE, GREECE ECONOMIC PROBLEMS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EUROPEAN STOCK MARKETS ALSO.

1-The Chart of Dow Jones at first pattern show an small drop in which happened from 10500 to 9600 levels from a few time and this mean that market will go only up.
2-Dax 2 target is 8000 levels, Dow will let Dax lead markets higher since Germant Merkel helped Obama Soros on Bendikt Germany over Obama profile in wich he preffer his mother over his father muslim and which receive Vatican help, also all of Merkel, Soros, Obama are Demorcats. (The help is the currency swap deal and debt to USA FED). (to note that Obama, Merkel, Berlusconi, Bloomberg, Soros all are Masons of Vatican).

3-Also point Nr.2 affect oil price since Obama receive Saudi support on oil since Obama has Muslim father, Lower oil mean help for USA economy.
4-The idea of markets to go higher is that Oil will go up and this mean that stock markets also will go up since oil mean fundamental demand from Industries, also value of things in my points on tradings say: Oil Up mean Gold Up mean Value of things in relative ratio to gold Up mean Stock markets up.