Analysis by Roberto Jbili                                                                    

     Park Capital Management                                                                

     Italy, Milano 15-09-09

Political Insight

All the fundamental reports indicate that oil is going up and that there was no need for last downs to 63 levels.

The economic activity which was priced into the Dow Jones rise to 10.000 levels was not priced recently in oil price.

We all know that Caterpilar positive reports in last quarter came from fundemantal industrial activity which was confirmed by many Economic data accross the Globe.

Each time when Stock markets go up and rise and Oil price go down, Russia became nervos and make terror attacks here and there and polticial problems to sustain oil price.

All of us know that the problems in Iraq was an example and another one was the 11 Septmber world trader center attacks when Nasdaq was at record high and oil was very cheap.

After the Attack USA was afraid Stocks tumble to the low and Oil rised to record high.

Today we are in similar situation Oil is cheap in comparison with Dow jones and Industrial activity Russia note the point and move files accross the globe like Iran Nuke news last week.

Today USA has little influence in NYMEX and NYSE to move oil higher and we should expect false reports to sustain Oil prices, Russia does not understand that there is an Bull and Bear Period of each Economic Cycle, and the poor innovation in Russia made the Russian Economy and the finance of Russia projects to be based on Oil income, this have to make partnership and interests between many parts and Russia from the terror point of View.

This actual situation in the globe from point of political view motivated by economy indicate that oil price will rise sharply to void any terror attacks from Russia, like 11 September attacks we listen to Iran News and the political preassure came on US admin to make a strike over Iran Nuke site by Year
end from the Lobby, Iran confirm the Nuke power she has, such us situation build the Bulls for the oil to 88 USD then possible to 100 USD.

This was also confirmed by Gold rise to 1000 level from London and UK is the most to feel worry since Russia want UK to feel the pain of playing with Oil price on Markets screen.

Russia and USA relation is played by Mike Blomberg which prepare himeslef for the election and is in need for any terror attacks to sustain him as an expiernced person to lead NewYork.

Economic Insight

The Global financial markets remain in positive situation as industrial demand confirm that confience by consumer is in place to produce demand for goods ande confirm that we are in bear market rally and many Economic reports will confirm this positive period fby Central banks governors.

Bear market rally is here and we confirm that there will be an market correction inside the bear market rally pattern the markets will fall to build above 10.000 levels. the NZD exchange rate will confirm the Dow jones movments going forward.

last week Nasdaq downside of 3% confirm that Oil will be going up.

We expect that central banks comments will build an attempt for the 10.000 levels among with NZD. movments to 0.75 levels.

We expect new attempt of Dow to touch the touch the 10.000 levels among with NZD rise to around 0.75 both from 9500 and 0.7150, this will be the last before and drop for the dow and NZD, Dow will drop to 8800
and NZD to 0.63.

Oil will go up based on Fundamental comments by Centeral banks governors, Once oil will pass the Tragedy
level of 0.75 Dow will go down to below 9.000 Oil services stocks will fly.